Ruling on South Africa’s Israel genocide allegations will have significant impact globally: Calgary academic

As the International Court of Justice (ICJ) investigates accusations of genocide by Israel amid its ongoing war with Hamas, a Calgary academic says the outcome — whatever it may be — will be significant.

“I see it as a very important historical event,” says Dr. Nazak Birjandifar, assistant professor of history at Mount Royal University. “Either way, it has very significant repercussions.”

Hamas targeted Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing more than 1,200 people and taking more than 200 hostages in a series of surprise attacks.

Israel followed by unleashing its attack on Gaza, saying the intent is to root out Hamas — not kill civilians.

In the following months, more than 25,000 Palestinians were killed — some in hospitals and refugee camps — and others forced to flee to other Gaza regions to avoid Israeli troops, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Currently, humanitarians claim many Palestinians are on the brink of starvation as the crisis continues.

Earlier in January, South Africa condemned Hamas for its attack on Israel while making the case to the ICJ that Israel’s aggression amounts to genocide.

Israel is standing firm in its stance that it has the right to defend itself, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying he is resolved to continue until Hamas is destroyed.

“The hope is the ICJ will step in and declare some sort of ceasefire or put an end to this conflict,” Birjandifar said. “Destroying Hamas, I feel, is more of a hope or a desire than something that will actually happen.”

While Canada supports the ICJ and its “process,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stopped short of supporting genocide allegations. 

Birjandifar says an ICJ ruling agreeing with South Africa will be a significant way to create a historical record on a war that has met with a conflicted international response. 

“The ruling can take a few years but South Africa is asking for emergency provision to halt the military campaign, which could save lives,” she said. 

She says countries like the United States and Canada have been reluctant thus far to openly condemn the Israeli military operation — something which could change if the ICJ decides the conflict needs to be immediately stopped.

If the ICJ rules it is not genocide, Birjandifar feels will reflect poorly on the international body, further demonstrating the assertion by some that it has biases and an unwillingness to bring accountability to western leaders and allies.

“It is difficult to enforce these decisions without support of great powers, but it will also be very difficult for countries like the U.S. and Canada to ignore if it rules as genocide,” Birjandifar said. “I think for western democracy to remain intact as supporters of human rights and a system where we have continually told the world, ‘we protect human rights and act against terrorism and genocide,’ it would be very much hypocritical to not take the ICJ ruling seriously.”

While the war between Hamas and Israel stems from decades of conflict, Birjandifar says the current hostility sees a marked shift.

Israeli hostages remain in captivity

Hanging in the balance, along with the lives of Palestinians caught in the ongoing war, is the fate of Israeli hostages still in captivity. 

Israel says 132 people remain unaccounted for after they were abducted and taken to Gaza during the October attacks. Up to 25 of the hostages are believed to be dead and 105 were released by Hamas during a six-day ceasefire in November. 

“I’m not sure Israel is going about it in a way that is going to get the hostages back,” Birjandifar said. “It makes you wonder if the hostages will survive this.”

The upcoming ruling by the ICJ “will potentially redefine roles of the international institutions in terms of trying to navigate and mediate the conflict,” according to Birjandifar.

-With files from The Associated Press