Week 1 Federal Election Poll
Posted Mar 30, 2011 1:39 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
New numbers from the latest poll on the federal election battle still give the Harper Tories a clear ten point lead at the Day 5 mark on the campaign trail. But the 38.4 per cent figure for the Conservatives in the Nanos poll is also down from previous polling numbers.
University of Windsor Political Scientist Cheryl Collier says that’s not a surprise, but tells 660News that trends — not numbers — are the keys to polls during election campaigns.
“We’ve got to watch trends,” says Collier. “If trends start to go, I would think down, if I was the government and I was noticing that polls start to show that I’m losing every time a new poll comes out, that would be something that would be cause for concern. And you might see kind of a shift in direction.”
She adds many governing parties lead early in the polls, but there is still plenty of time for things to change.
“Unless there’s a big undecided, and the undecided vote is always critical in polling numbers, if that’s a large percentage of the population — and those people are motivated to vote — then they can switch some direction from the polls, even close to an election.”
According to the latest Nanos figures, 21 per cent of voters fit into the undecided category.
Collier also says that in the coming weeks, swing ridings — where one party doesn’t have a clear cut lead over others — will also be a key.
“I saw one news report that said there’s about 50 of them across Canada,” noted Collier. “I don’t know if the number is necessarily that high, but there are definitely some that we could see some shifts and it is all about who wins what riding, obviously.”
In addition to the Harper Tories at 38.4 per cent, the Nanos numbers give the Michael Ignatieff Liberals 28.7 per cent support. The Jack Layton New Democrats get the thumbs up from just under 20 per cent of the populace.
