ATB Financial forecasts another rough patch with unemployment peaking mid-2016
Posted Jan 14, 2016 12:16 pm.
This article is more than 5 years old.
ATB Financial’s 2016 economic outlook warns not to expect a quick turn around to the tough times in Alberta, but it also says there’s room for optimism.
It says things may start to get better by the summer. The layoffs in the petroleum sector will continue this year, and unemployment will likely jump above 7 per cent.
“It’ is now having a broader effect on peripheral industries,” says Chief Economist Todd Hirsch. “Industries that feed into the oil and gas sector. So we will see it more bradly across the province. Nonetheless, the concentration of the layoffs are still going to be in that petroleum sector.”
Hirsch expects oil to hit $50 a barrel by December and other industries will prop up the province until then.
“Agriculture, foresty and tourism are the three sectors that I like to talk about because they’re all actually doing well in 2016. They actually benefit from low energy prices and all three are really benefitting from that low Canadian dollar,” sysa Hirsch.
He adds weak retail and residential activity should stabilize by mid year as well, and it’s likely the province could see a net-outflow of migration.
The outlook says even though the economy will likely still contract in 2016, it should only be by 0.5 per cent, half of what it was last year.
