Pondering the reliability of political polls following Alberta vote
Posted Apr 24, 2012 7:27 am.
This article is more than 5 years old.
The outcome of the 28th Alberta General Election has many people questioning political polling.
Poll after poll leading up to the April 23rd vote predicted the Wildrose Party poised to end 41 years of Tory rule.
However, when the ballots were counted, the Progressive Conservative’s were given their 12th straight majority government capturing almost 75 per cent of the 87 seats in the legislature.
Some comments on Twitter suggest media outlets should be looking for refunds from the various polling firms they contracted for the election.
University of Calgary political scientist Doreen Barrie tells 660News those polls likely backfired on the Wildrose, prompting people to reevaluate their support; especially after a couple of candidates made homophobic and racist remarks.
Keith Brownsey at Mount Royal University says some credit should be given to the campaign the Tories ran, which constantly planted seeds of doubt about the Wildrose and its policies and platforms.
Political analyst and author Dr. Allan Bonner says it looks like undecided voters decided to vote Tory adding the PC’s well-established political machine likely also came through with getting the vote out.
Bonner says poll results should be taken with a grain of salt.
Some suggest political polls should be scaled back and maybe even banned; Bonner says polls are a snapshot of what people are thinking on any given day, and those opinions can change greatly over the course of a campaign.
