Former Alberta Wildrose leader seeking UCP nomination

Former Alberta Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean has announced he’s seeking UCP nomination in a seat for Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche.

Jean made the announcement on his Facebook page Wednesday night.

“You spoke and I listened. Something must be done or Rachel Notley will win the next election with an overwhelming majority,” wrote Jean.

“That will be bad for Alberta.”

RELATED: ‘It doesn’t have to be this way’: Brian Jean sounds off on Alberta politics in Twitter thread

Jean goes on to say that he expects some opposition from other MLAs.

“The NDP won’t want me to be in the Legislature. Some in the UCP will want to stop me as well,” he said.

Jean notably lost the UCP leadership race to Jason Kenney in 2017.

Jean would be running to fill the void left by Laila Goodridge, who left provincial politics to run in this year’s federal election.

She was elected in the riding of Fort McMurray-Cold Lake on Sept. 20.

When will a by-election be called?

Since Goodridge resigned from her job as an MLA, a by-election will be needed to fill the vacancy.

Elections Alberta says a vote will need to be called within six months of Goodridge’s departure–so, at the latest, something would need to be called by Feb. 15, 2022.

A by-election in Fort McMurray must be called no later than February 15th, with the vote itself taking place 28 days later.#yeg #yyc #ableg https://t.co/CHNFZZIxyd

— Courtney Theriault (@cspotweet) November 4, 2021

This date refers to when the writ for the by-election must be issued, not the date of the election. Once the writ is issued, the by-election will be held 28 days later,’ Elections Alberta explained in a statement to CityNews.

This means people in that riding might not vote until mid-March. And the voting authority says a by-election would be carried out similarly to other elections.

“By-elections follow the same procedures as provincial elections under the Election Act. In addition to voting on Election Day, electors will be able to cast a ballot at the advance polls (Tuesday through Saturday the week prior to Election Day) or by completing a Special Ballot at the returning office or by mail,” it said.

A political chess match

This could set up an interesting battle between Jean and the premier if his nomination is accepted and he goes for the seat.

“It’s a bit of deja vu,” said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.

While it seems like a foregone conclusion at this point that Jean would win the seat no matter what — either as a member of the UCP or as an independent — Williams said Kenney has to give the impression he is not trying to just protect his role as leader of the party.

https://twitter.com/Tommy_Slick/status/1456340346040770562

“If Jason Kenney decides not to (approve Jean’s nomination), then it looks like he is worried about Brian Jean and it makes him look like he’s unable to lead.”

But it also would not be all smooth sailing for Jean if he does win the by-election and eventually run towards the leadership.

Right now, there are significant fractures within the party that have formed throughout the duration of the pandemic and threaten Kenney’s leadership already. It’s hard to imagine that the divisions would disappear as soon as Jean jumps into the pool.

“Brian Jean would have to convince Albertans that he’s going to lead the party effectively and be able to tamp down those divisions and move Alberta in the direction that he sees as best for Alberta and for Albertans, and isn’t sort of beholden to the agitators,” she said.

“It may answer a question that a lot of UCP members have been asking, and that is well, if Jason Kenney isn’t our leader who can take his place?”

Williams said Jean certainly does have name recognition and a platform many voters would already know about and that does give him a leg up. But it also exposes philosophical differences within the merged conservative party, as it remains a challenge to keep social, fiscal and progressive conservatives aligned.

-with files from Carly Robinson