Outcome of Tuesday’s byelection a lose lose for Alberta premier: political scientists

Regardless of the outcome, there will be one clear loser in Tuesday’s byelection in northern Alberta according to political experts.

No matter who comes out on top in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, they believe Premier Jason Kenney will be faced with an unfavourable outcome due to the fact that all the main contenders oppose his leadership.

Lori Williams, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary, says she expects longtime politician Brian Jean to win the seat for the United Conservative Party.

“His whole candidacy is about removing (Kenney) as leader of the party,” says Williams. “There will be a certain number of UCP members and general voters who find that appealing.”

Williams says supporters of Jean feel they can use him as a way to show just how unhappy they are with the province’s current government.

Jean is a former leader of the Wildrose Party and ran for the UCP leadership when his party merged with Alberta’s Progressive Conservatives, but lost to Kenney. He is running against Paul Hinman, leader of the Wildrose Independence Party, and NDP candidate Ariana Mancini.

“It’s not good news for Jason Kenney if Brian Jean wins. It’s not good news if Paul Hinman wins. But what if the vote on the rights gets split and the NDP wins? Also, not good news for Kenney.” says Williams.

Read more:

• Can Jason Kenney win UCP leadership review?

• Kenney confident he’ll remain UCP leader despite some MLAs organizing against him

• Premier Jason Kenney calls March 15 byelection, UCP candidate campaigning to oust him

The seat came open last August when UCP backbencher Laila Goodridge resigned to run, successfully, for the federal Conservatives.

Political scientist Duane Bratt, also from Mount Royal University, says the best scenario for Kenney would be an NDP win, but Bratt adds that’s unlikely to happen.

“He could claim that infighting within the UCP will allow (NDP Leader) Rachel Notley to become victorious (in the next election), so the only way to ‘keep these darn socialists out is by rallying around me,’” said Bratt.

He agrees it appears many people are betting on a Jean victory.

“Once he won the nomination, I think the deck was set.”

Both Williams and Bratt say this byelection comes at a crucial time for Alberta’s government as party members are set to gather in Red Deer on April 9 for a vote on Kenney’s leadership.

The premier has framed the vote not as a referendum on his performance, but as a way to stave off fringe elements threatening the party and government while he faces low popularity numbers.

A UCP spokesperson said there are about 5,000 people registered for the meeting and it could double in coming weeks.

Bratt said a high turnout could signal strong opinions both for and against Kenney’s leadership.

If he receives between 50 to 70 per cent approval, it could further complicate an already tense situation, Bratt suggests.

“A bit more than a month ago, I was thinking Kenney’s got control of the party … he’s probably going to win the leadership race,” says Williams.

“Now, increasingly, I (think) this is too close to call.”