Brian Jean, Danielle Smith frontrunners to replace Jason Kenney: Angus Reid

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute shows the top two candidates to replace Jason Kenney as leader of the UCP are Brian Jean and Danielle Smith, two former leaders of the Wildrose Party.

One quarter of Albertans say both Smith (24 per cent), and Jean (23 per cent) are the most appealing to take the top job.

Jean notably finished second to Kenney in the inaugural UCP leadership race, when the Progressive Conservative Party merged with the Wildrose Party in 2017.

Kenney’s Finance Minister Travis Toews polled at 13 per cent, and is the only other candidate to be selected by more than 10 per cent of Albertans.

In a tweet, long-time Calgary Nose Hill MP Michelle Rempel Garner said she’s been encouraged to seek UCP leadership and is considering it, but is not included in the poll.

Angus Reid suggests about half of Albertans are pleased to see Jason Kenney go.

Half of Albertans say they're pleased Premier Jason Kenney is resigning. Some (16%) are more upset.https://t.co/UHIIZfu2eB pic.twitter.com/3VT0vuzpt3

— Angus Reid Institute (@angusreidorg) June 17, 2022

One-in-six Albertans are upset at his exit, including one-third of those who say they will vote for the UCP in the upcoming election.

Kenney announced his resignation on May 20 after receiving a slim majority of votes (51.4 per cent) in his party’s leadership review. He will be premier until the UCP selects a new leader on Oct. 6.

Kenny’s time as leader was hampered by the crash in oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic, his government lost $1.3 billion on failed the Keystone XL pipeline deal.

Sixteen per cent of Albertans say Kenney’s departure leaves them unhappy — and just one-in-three of those who currently support the UCP (32 per cent) say they are upset to see him go.

While the next provincial election is not scheduled to take place until May 2023, the Angus Reid poll suggests that a lot is riding on whoever becomes the new UCP leader.

Angus Reid suggests Kenney’s departure has put his party on the positive side of a two-point gap separating the NDP and UCP.

Forty-two percent of Albertans say they support the UCP, and 40 per cent would support the NDP if an election was held today.

For the second quarter in a row, the UCP and NDP are statistically tied in vote intent in Alberta.https://t.co/UHIIZfu2eB pic.twitter.com/NNGvKFROJW

— Angus Reid Institute (@angusreidorg) June 17, 2022

While the UCP sorts out its top job, Albertans are preoccupied with inflation — like many across the country.

The new UCP leader will have to deal with the rising cost of living and health issues as the UCP’s performance with these two issues received mixed criticism between good and bad.

Two-thirds say cost of living is a top-three provincial issue, while two-in-five (44 per cent) say the same of health care. Albertans are much more negative than positive in their assessment of the UCP government’s performance for both those files.

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Seventy percent say the government has done poorly on health, while 71 percent say they have done poorly with the rising cost of living.

Albertans who consider health care, education, and climate change to be important issues are expected to vote for Rachel Notley’s NDP.