Alberta UCP and NDP ‘evenly matched,’ Calgary deciding factor: poll

The Alberta United Conservative Party (UCP) and New Democrats (NDP) are “evenly matched” when it comes to a new pre-election poll, and the deciding votes could fall on Calgary.

Calling it a “two-horse race,” the poll by ThinkHQ has the UCP three percentage points ahead of the NDP, at 48 to 45 per cent respectively. They are followed by the Alberta Party at four per cent support.

The poll of 1,144 people found 12 per cent of respondents were undecided.

“The next provincial election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in Alberta’s history,” said ThinkHQ public affairs president Marc Henry in a news release.

“As it sits today, the NDP can capture 20 seats out of Edmonton without breaking a sweat, and the UCP can say the same for most of the constituencies outside of the two biggest cities. But, neither the UCP nor NDP have a clear lock on government at this point – both are shy of the 44 seats required for a majority without capturing ‘leaning’ or ‘toss up’ constituencies.”

Statistics from a poll released by Think HQ on Monday, Jan. 30, 2023. (Courtesy of Think HQ)

The UCP has a small lead on the NDP in the Calgary metropolitan area (CMA) by two percentage points (47 to 45). However, the pollster notes the NDP has the same lead in “Calgary proper.”

“Calgary will be the real battleground for seats: 26 within city limits, 29 including others in the CMA. It’s seat-rich and very divided today,” Henry said.

Men are more likely to vote for the UCP at 57 per cent, while women are more likely to vote NDP at 53 per cent, the poll finds. Meanwhile, it says younger people (those aged 18 to 34) are more likely to vote NDP, while older demographics are more likely to vote UCP.

Voters ‘unimpressed’ with provincial leaders

As part of the poll, respondents were asked if they agreed with the following statement: “I don’t really like any of the party / leader choices in Alberta.”

In response, many people said they are “unimpressed” with the province’s other options, with nearly four-in-10 people agreeing with the above statement.

Eighty-per-cent of undecided voters agreed with the statement, while 74 per cent of Alberta Party voters said the same.

Over a third of people planning to vote UCP agree with the statement at 35 per cent, while 27 per cent of people voting NDP agree.

“Eight in 10 undecided voters don’t really like the alternatives. Even 1/4 – 1/3 of voters looking at the NDP or UCP aren’t especially happy about the decision. With this in mind, turnout is going to be a decisive factor in the next election,” Henry said.

The Alberta provincial election is slated for May. 29.