Calgary experiencing El Niño winter

Everyone knows it’s coming but so far, the wintery weather that usually hits Calgary this time of year has largely stayed away.

There was a modest dump of snow in late October but a look at the long range forecast — at least for now — shows little to no snow into November’s third week.

So, what’s going on?

CityNews meteorologist Michael Kuss says in the big picture — there’s components of a mild El Niño winter shaping up, but there will be that winter pattern bringing precipitation and warmer than normal temperatures.

Kuss says it also doesn’t help drought concerns as it’s important to have a snow pack.

“It’s not just precipitation. If you get a little bit of wet weather in the winter in the form of rain, it doesn’t really — in the big picture — help,” he explained. “You need that sustained snow pack on the ground, so when you get into spring as agriculture is concerned, you have that melt — that deeper moisture setting up That may not be as substantial as we’ve seen over the last couple of years.

“This is interesting — you go back to this time last year and we had snow on the first six or seven days of November and on Nov. 15, it was -15.5 C for a daytime high,” Kuss continued. “So it’s quite the contrast to what we’ve been experiencing over the last couple of weeks.”

But, it won’t be like this forever.

“Longer range — yes, there will be precipitation and cooler spells. But, traditionally, an El Niño winter means temperatures will be warmer than normal through most of Alberta, including Calgary. But precipitation normally falls in an average range,” Kuss explained.

And, in case Calgarians were wondering, he says it is much too early to predict whether or not the city will see a white Christmas.