No leadership bump for NDP post-Nenshi victory: poll

It appears the NDP has not received any kind of new leader bump after Naheed Nenshi’s landslide leadership victory last month.

A recent Abacus Data survey has found support for the party at 40 per cent, the same as a survey back in March. It leaves the opposition well behind the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) and actually down four points from the last provincial election.

The UCP has 54 per cent support, down one point since the last poll.

The UCP’s lead shrinks to just 4 points when considering Calgary, smaller margin than we measured in March at 8 points, while the two parties are tied in Edmonton. For the rest of the province, the UCP leads the NDP by 34 points.

Nenshi has not indicated any policies so far, except his desire to sever ties with the federal NDP, which appears popular. The survey found 49 per cent of respondents support that idea, while 21 per cent oppose it.

The pollster notes it’s too early to know what Nenshi’s impact will be moving forward but say a concerning number is the fact that Danielle Smith and the UCP have a larger pool of accessible voters.

“The UCP’s advantage outside of two largest cities remains a big hurdle for a future NDP government and changing the public’s perception of the NDP is going to be an important step in fixing that,” says the pollster. “There’s broad support for splitting the provincial NDP from the federal party, so that could be a first step in that process.”

Among the respondents, 62 per cent say they would “consider” voting for the UCP, but only 48 per cent said the same when it came to the NDP.

Abacus surveyed 1,000 people online from June 25 to June 28, just days after Nenshi’s win.