Path to victory for Alberta NDP goes through smaller cities like Lethbridge: political scientist
Posted Dec 19, 2024 4:35 pm.
If the Alberta NDP hopes to form government after the next provincial general election, the path to victory goes through small cities like Lethbridge.
That’s according to Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt, who spoke to CityNews after the NDP’s byelection win in Lethbridge-West Wednesday. He called it a “pretty convincing win.”
The NDP would need to grow support in places outside of Edmonton and central Calgary to form government again.
“They have to win in the smaller cities,” Bratt said. “The argument that they’re going to make in Red Deer and Medicine Hat is not going to be any different from what they were making a couple weeks ago (in Lethbridge).”
Rob Miyashiro will take over the Lethbridge-West legislature seat previously occupied by NDP MLA Shannon Phillips, who resigned for personal reasons last summer.
Miyashiro secured 7,239 votes to defeat the United Conservative Party’s John Middleton-Hope, who finished with 6,089 votes. The official tally is expected next Saturday.
“The UCP threw a lot into this, including visits by Danielle Smith and many cabinet ministers, and recruited a very strong candidate in former police chief John Middleton-Hope,” Bratt said. “The UCP clearly really wanted to steal this away from the NDP, but they were unsuccessful.
“It would have been a very different situation had they lost it. This would have been a much bigger story if the UCP was able to switch it over.”
The NDP has held onto Lethbridge-West since 2015.
“This is about more than just Shannon Phillips, although I think she contributed on the ground,” Bratt said. “This really has transformed Lethrbridge-West into a strong NDP riding.”
The victory is validation for new NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi and his popularity outside of Calgary. The byelection was widely seen as the first true test of Nenshi’s leadership.
“I don’t think Nenshi had a role in this,” said Bratt. “I think it was the people on the ground and in Lethbridge. But had they lost it, then he would wear it.”
“The conventional wisdom is this was a Shannon Phillips seat,” Nenshi said after the win. “But we elected a great candidate, we ran an incredible campaign, but mostly we had the people of Lethbridge-West look at what the Alberta New Democrats had to offer and say, ‘that’s the kind of optimism I’m looking for.’ So I feel great about it.”
The UCP has heavily criticized Nenshi, who still does not have a seat in the legislature, for not running in southern Alberta. But there’s a good chance Nenshi’s name will be on a ballot soon; the next byelection will be held in Edmonton-Strathcona, Rachel Notley’s old riding, and Nenshi says he’s open to running there.
“I think the UCP was being disingenuous when they attacked him for not running in Lethbridge,” Bratt told CityNews. “But Nenshi has hurt his case by then opening the door to running in Edmonton-Strathcona. Because previously it was ‘I live in Calgary, I’m going to run in Calgary,’ and now it’s ‘I live in Calgary. I work in Edmonton. I can I can play a role in either city.’ That’s not quite the same argument, he was making a couple weeks ago.”
Premier Danielle Smith did not make it to Middleton-Hope’s election night party in Lethbridge, though some UCP cabinet ministers did.
The premier didn’t take CityNews’ byelection question at a Thursday press conference. But in a social media post, Smith thanked her candidate and celebrated a two per cent bump in UCP votes over last election in Lethbridge-West.
“Our party is going to keep on growing as we continue our work to build a freer, more prosperous Alberta,” she wrote on X.
