How much stake should Canadians put in polls ahead of federal election?

Major research-based organizations in Canada have shared polling in recent weeks that suggests more and more voters are jumping on the Liberal train ahead of the upcoming federal election.

But, just how much of a stake should Canadian voters be putting in polls with the election around the corner?

With just a few weeks until the Apr. 28 federal election, candidate support can change by the minute, and Andrew Enns, executive vice president of Leger, admits polling data can only tell so much.

“Polls are really a snapshot, a point in time,” he says. “It’s a reflection of how voters are feeling in that particular moment.”

Recent numbers from major pollsters suggest the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, could be heading for a fourth straight election win — a stark contrast from two months ago when Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre appeared all but certain to be Canada’s next prime minister.

Martha Hall Findlay is the director of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy and says recent advancements in technology have significantly improved accuracy when it comes to predicting the outcome of elections.

She says there are some major pollsters that are quite reliable, like Angus Reid, Ipsos, or Leger.

“The main polling companies base their reputation of being non-biased,” says Hall Findlay. “If ever there is any real allegation of bias coming through then people wouldn’t engage with them.”

However, there are some red flags to be aware of when reading polling information, according to Hall Findlay, like whether or not it’s sponsored or conducted by a special interest group or marketing agency.

She adds that people would get a better idea of what could happen in a federal election by paying attention to riding specific polling, rather than national polling.

“When you have 338 ridings and we’re so geographically spread out as a country, we tend to see very strong regional preferences,” she says.

Enns says there are important things to keep in mind when interpreting a poll, including the size, with larger polls generally being more accurate.

“If you start to dissect it and break it down in very narrow groupings, the margin of error will go up and the accuracy can be effected,” he says.

Enns recommends seeking out polling that has a margin of error of around plus-or-minus one to two per cent.

When it comes time to cast a ballot, both Enns and Hall Findlay it’s best to vote based on platform rather than letting polling influence a decision.

According to the latest Leger poll, the federal Liberals are pushing further ahead of the Conservatives in voter support with almost one in two Canadians surveyed saying they think the Liberals will win the election.

The survey, conducted by Leger for The Canadian Press, reports that 44 per cent of decided voters surveyed would vote Liberal in the upcoming election, ahead of the Conservatives at 38 per cent.

Calgarians and Edmontonians favour a Conservative government over a Liberal one, according to a CityNews-Leger poll, but the support for Poilievre is much more pronounced in southern Alberta.