Alberta’s migration slowdown cooling Calgary’s housing market: report

A years‑long migration boom that helped fuel Alberta’s population growth and supercharge its housing market may finally be losing steam.

A new outlook from the Conference Board of Canada shows a sharp decline in the number of Canadians moving to the province—particularly into Calgary—and the effects are already rippling through real estate.

For much of the past decade, Alberta attracted thousands of newcomers from across the country. Some were lured by the province’s “Alberta is Calling” campaign aimed at skilled workers; others came seeking affordability compared to major centres like Toronto and Vancouver. But the latest data suggests that momentum is slowing.

Calgary real estate agent Asim Naveed, who has worked in the city’s northeast for more than three years, says the change on the ground has been unmistakable.

“We have less buyers. There is more sellers in the market right now, but definitely they are not getting what they are asking for,” Naveed said. “This is the very first time where we actually see that there is no multiple offers.

“The property has to sit in the market for a longer time.”

According to the Conference Board, Calgary added more than 18,000 people annually through interprovincial migration in 2023 and 2024. But in 2025, that number dropped sharply—and the trend is expected to continue. By 2030, net migration into the city could fall to just 1,800 people.

Economist Moshe Lander points to a mix of political and economic factors, including U.S. tariffs, federal immigration cuts, and broader uncertainty. But he argues the most significant factor may be the success—and unintended consequences—of Alberta’s own recruitment efforts.

“We invited a whole bunch of people… to come, and when they showed up, we said, ‘Yeah, we don’t have doctors for you. We don’t have school places for your kids… We have an unaffordable housing market in both Calgary and Edmonton,” Lander said. “Not surprisingly, they’re leaving.”

While Calgary’s market is cooling sharply, Edmonton’s appears more balanced.

The Conference Board reports that listings in the capital have risen significantly as homeowners seek to capitalize on recent market strength. Still, analysts warn that conditions could easily tip into buyer‑friendly territory.

Calgary, meanwhile, is already experiencing what the report calls a “historic decline.” Naveed says the shift became especially clear at the end of last year.

“Just by December, the overall numbers—the sales—dropped by 14.2%, and that was a significant drop,” he said. “For a very long time, it was always a seller’s market. But now this is the very first time where we are seeing a buyer market.”

Looking ahead to 2026, the Conference Board says both Calgary and Edmonton will be heavily influenced by global forces—particularly oil prices and the impact of U.S. tariffs.