2026 Canada spring forecast: Wet precipitation pattern expected in east, drier in Prairies

As Canada prepares to usher in spring on Friday, CityNews chief meteorologist Natasha Ramsahai says we should expect wetter conditions in much of the eastern part of the country while it’s shaping up to be drier in the west.

In her spring forecast released on Thursday, Ramsahai said she’s keeping an eye on a rapid shift to an El Niño pattern (above-average temperatures) from a La Niña pattern (below-average temperatures) in the Pacific Ocean.

“This is expected to strengthen into a very strong El Niño by the winter time of this year, but it still has impacts on the jet stream as we go into spring,” she said.

Ramsahai said the jet stream pattern will likely mean “very wet conditions” in the northwest corner of British Columbia, but “very dry” across the Prairies and western Newfoundland. Even though southern B.C. is currently dealing with atmospheric river conditions, it’s shaping up to be drier in the same region in the spring.

“We don’t like to see this, of course, as we head into wildfire season,” she said, adding that could mean some relief in 2026 for parts of Ontario and Quebec as these areas are expected to see wetter-than-average conditions.

When it comes to areas near the Great Lakes, Ramsahai said it likely won’t mean just rain.

“We’ll likely see still a lot of mixed precipitation, possibly still some flurries, freezing rain and ice pellets … at least for the first half of spring, or at least the rest of March, and then that will transition to rain here as we go through April and May,” she said.

What will temperatures be like across Canada?

For March and until at least mid-April, Ramsahai said a cooler-than-average temperature pattern is expected for the Great Lakes regions heading east toward Newfoundland. Similar conditions are expected in the central Prairies and Yukon.

She said this is being fuelled by a “leftover lobe of the polar vortex.”

“That’s going to allow a lot of cold air to spill south here across the eastern part of the country,” Ramsahai said.

However, she said the southern parts of B.C. and the Prairies as well as the U.S. Pacific northwest are expected to see warmer-than-average temperatures.

“By late spring, I’m expecting this pattern to change to pretty much average in normal conditions in terms of temperatures right across the Great Lakes, so seasonal out through the east,” Ramsahai said.

“That cool weather pattern, though, will likely hang on across the northern Prairies and northern Ontario, but a lot of heat is expected to maintain itself up into the B.C. interior and much of the U.S. west coast.”