Alberta UCP, NDP at statistical tie months ahead of election: polls

The UCP government’s sovereignty act might not be the political boogeyman some are making it out to be — at least among Alberta voters.

According to a new poll by Mainstreet Research, 46 per cent of those surveyed disapprove of the legislation, while 44 per cent support it.

The firm conducted the survey between Friday and Saturday, asking questions of 615 Albertans via landline and cell phones.

When it came to who they would vote for, 47 per cent of decided voters said the UCP, while 45 per cent said the NDP.

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Taking into account the “margin of error” in the poll, that makes for a statistical tie.

Meanwhile, the latest Angus Reid Institute poll also puts the UCP and NDP at a statistical tie when it comes to provincial support.

The pollster says the UCP’s “fortunes” are “holding steady when compared to data from prior to Smith’s UCP leadership win.”

“The party is statically tied in vote intent with Rachel Notley and the NDP, 48 per cent to 44 per cent, as the parties build towards a spring 2023 election,” the survey results read.

The institute notes the New Democrats appear to hold the lead in both Edmonton and Calgary, but adds “that is dwarfed by the deficit the party faces in the rest of the province.”

New Angus Reid poll puts UCP ahead of NDP in provincial support, but NDP hold the lead in both Edmonton and Calgary. #yeg #yyc #ableg pic.twitter.com/PN0AdwPNNQ

— Courtney Theriault (@cspotweet) December 8, 2022

When it comes to what matters most to voters, Angus Reid has found two issues stand out, likely to no surprise: cost of living and health care.

On the topic of the sovereignty act, the institute says that in September, before Danielle Smith became premier, 54 per cent of Albertans asked opposed the passing of the legislation.

It’s unclear if that number has changed since.

The next provincial election is set for Monday, May 29, 2023.