Farkas passes Gondek as Calgary mayoral favourite in new poll; survey faces conflict of interest claims

With Jeromy Farkas climbing to the top of the pack — swapping places with Mayor Jyoti Gondek — and many remaining undecided in the latest Leger poll on voter intention in Calgary’s 2025 municipal election, conflict of interest claims are being thrown at a recent survey.

In the poll released Friday, the independent candidate has 16 per cent of the pack and two points ahead of Gondek, with Ward 1 councillor and Communities First party leader Sonya Sharp nabbing third place with 11 per cent.

Former city councillor Jeff Davison comes next at eight per cent, followed by Calgary Party leader Brian Thiessen at four per cent.

Jeffrey Clauson, who had a self-funded campaign and dropped out of the race, received three per cent. He didn’t endorse anyone on his way out, saying on social media, “I truly don’t believe in any of them.”

However, the one to claim the majority was the undecided camp, with 35 per cent expressing uncertainty in the candidates come election day. This is lower than the 45 per cent from the previous poll.

Fifty-six per cent of those polled will “definitely” vote, while another 17 per cent will “very likely” vote, making for 72 per cent of likely voters.

Conflict of interest allegations levied at pollster running municipal election campaign

The poll contrasts with survey results released by ThinkHQ on Thursday, which has Farkas carrying the lead at 20 per cent, Sharp close behind at 17 per cent, and Gondek at 16 per cent.

ThinkHQ pollster Marc Henry said the election has been “sleepy,” but that it’s a three-horse race between Farkas, Sharp, and Gondek. However, he says the mayor “seems to have stalled out,” and her potential vote ceiling is low due to his poll showing two-thirds of voters disapprove of her.

With Davison and Thiessen “well back” in the competition, Henry says the former would need to double their vote share, while the latter would need to triple theirs to be contenders.

“Probably not happening,” he said.

“Voters who are concerned about a vote split allowing the sitting mayor to return can breathe a little easier, knowing that two candidates can, and likely will, garner more votes than her. For those, ‘anybody but Gondek voters’, they have two options: would they prefer to see Mayor Farkas or Mayor Sharp?”

Henry is leading the Communities First campaign, according to multiple reports. The party told 660 NewsRadio any involvement in the party campaign is voluntary.

Davison said in a social media post Henry’s involvement is “unethical and “deceptive.”

“When you’re the party architect of Communities First AND the principal of Think HQ polling, that’s called a conflict of interest,” he said.

Allegations of a conflict of interest with Henry were first raised by Davison in August, saying it stemmed from ThinkHQ being contracted for work with ENMAX, a city-owned service.

ENMAX confirmed this at the time, saying it has contracted the polling firm for customer sentiment research for around a decade — but does not endorse or support candidates or campaigns, and has “strict municipal election protocols to ensure neutrality and transparency.”

Disclosure documents from Elections Calgary reveal Henry donating $1,000 to the party and $5,000 to Sharp’s mayoral campaign.

Henry, in an email Sunday, admits he has donated his time and money to Communities First candidates, but as a private citizen, adding they are not clients of ThinkHQ.

He calls the conflict of interest claims “more malicious and ironic than most,” and slams the argument as silly because “people do have private and professional lives and that should be respected.”

“When people are doing well in the polls, they love them. When they are doing poorly, they don’t like them and often find some reason to question them,” he said.

“Davison takes an almost hysterical offence to this, suggesting someone who is a principal in a polling firm is somehow prohibited from participating in democratic processes of elections.

He says the employment of a private citizen shouldn’t conflict with participating in an election campaign. According to the Local Political Parties and Slates Regulation, residents and corporations in Alberta are allowed to contribute to campaigns.

Candidates tasked with steering candidates in ‘right direction’

According to the Leger poll, candidates will have to steer the city in the “right direction” as over half of respondents feel the city is heading in the “wrong direction.” Only 36 per cent say it’s on the right path.

Leger asked respondents the following question: Taking everything into account, how do you feel things are going these days in Calgary? Are things going in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

Reducing taxes, spending, and increasing safety downtown were the three top issues expressed by respondents.

Calgarians head to the polls on Oct. 20. Early voting begins on Oct. 6.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated with comments from Marc Henry from ThinkHQ.