Albertans, Canadians not fans of plan to withdraw from CPP: poll
Posted Oct 7, 2023 10:50 am.
Canadians and Albertans alike aren’t too pleased with the United Conservative Party government’s plan to withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), according to a recent poll.
The Abacus Data survey of nearly 2,000 people across the country, oversampled with 500 from Alberta, featured two questions: How closely are they paying attention to the proposal, and is it a good idea or not.
Forty-four per cent of Canadian respondents say it is a bad idea, with 36 per cent of those believing it to be a “very bad idea.” Seventeen per cent think it is a good idea and the same for it being an “OK idea.” Twenty-two per cent don’t know.
Meanwhile, 52 per cent of Albertans believe it is a bad idea, while 19 per cent believe it is a “good idea,” and 15 per cent believe it is an “OK idea.” Fourteen per cent don’t know. A greater percentage of those from Alberta believe it is a bad idea compared to the rest of the country, with the closest being Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 49 per cent.
A graph showing how respondents from the rest of Canada and Alberta feel about withdrawing from the Canadian Pension Plan. (Courtesy Abacus Data Inc.)
The pollster says those over the age of 60 most likely think it is a bad idea at 59 per cent, while only one in four Canadians under 30 who are aware of the plan feel the same way. In Alberta, those numbers are higher, with 64 per cent of those over the age of 60 feeling it is a bad idea.
A graph showing how Canadians feel about withdrawing from the Canadian Pension Plan by age group. (Courtesy Abacus Data Inc.)
A graph showing how Albertans feel about withdrawing from the Canadian Pension Plan by age group. (Courtesy Abacus Data Inc.)
Almost everyone who voted NDP thinks withdrawing from the CPP is a bad idea. Among the United Conservative Party voters, 30 per cent think it is a good idea, 22 per cent think it is an “OK idea,” and 29 per cent think it is a bad idea. For everyone else, 56 per cent think it is a bad idea, and combining “good idea” and “OK idea,” 41 per cent see it positively.
Watch: Alberta NDP launches survey on Alberta Pension Plan
Regarding how aware Canadians are of news on the proposal, 43 per cent of Canadians say they had not heard of it until they conducted the survey, compared to 10 per cent of Albertans.
Albertans are more aware and are following developments in the plan (90 per cent), with 36 per cent following it closely, compared to only 14 per cent in the rest of Canada. Five per cent follow it very closely in the country, compared to 15 per cent in Alberta.
Only British Columbia is close in awareness at 64 per cent, followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 59 per cent.
“This poll reveals a stark contrast in awareness and opinions between Albertans and the rest of Canada regarding Alberta’s plan to withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP),” said Abacus Data CEo David Coletto in a statement.
“While Albertans are overwhelmingly aware of the proposal, with 90 per cent having heard about it, the broader Canadian population seems to be largely uninformed, with 43 per cent having no prior knowledge of the plan. This indicates that the issue is of significant regional interest in Alberta but has yet to gain widespread attention nationally.”
He says the demographic and political breakdowns show a generational divide, noting how younger Canadians and Albertans see a withdrawal as negatively as the older populations.
“As Alberta’s government considers moving forward with its plan, the division within its own province, as well as the larger Canadian context, cannot be ignored,” he continued.
“The Premier and those who support withdrawing Alberta from the CPP have their work cut out for them and the implications on federal politics haven’t yet been felt given so few Canadians outside of Alberta even know this is an idea being discussed.”
A third-party report released by the Government of Alberta in mid-September says Albertans should get $334 billion, or 53 per cent of the national retirement savings program if it leaves in 2027 following the required three-year notification period.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says the report found those in the province could save up to $5 billion in the first year of an Alberta Pension Plan.
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A government pension panel led by former provincial finance minister Jim Dinning is scheduled to hold information sessions and solicit feedback through the spring.
The panel would then deliver a report about whether it believes Albertans want the issue put to a vote.
Smith has said there would be a referendum and a majority of Albertans would have to give the OK.
The poll was conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 5. It says a “random sample of panellists” were invited to complete the survey from a set of “partner panels” they say are based on the Lucid Exchange platform.
“These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source,” the pollster says.
The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc., and the margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
-With files from The Canadian Press
