Calgarians, Edmontonians prefer Poilievre’s Conservatives over Carney’s Liberals: CityNews-Leger poll

Calgarians and Edmontonians favour a Conservative government over a Liberal one, according to a CityNews-Leger poll, but the support for Pierre Poilievre is much more pronounced in southern Alberta.

Support for the Conservatives is overwhelming in Calgary, with 53 per cent saying they would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) if an election were held today, compared to 29 percent for the Liberals. The NDP is a distant third at 13 per cent.

Fifty-seven per cent of Calgarians also believe the CPC would be best for Cowtown — consistent across gender and age subgroups — compared to 25 per cent for the Liberals.

That Conservative support also exists in Edmonton but it’s more muted. Forty-one per cent of Edmontonians say they would vote for Poilievre if an election were held today, with the Liberals not terribly far behind at 35 per cent. Also 41 per cent say the Conservatives would be best for Alberta’s capital.

“Traditionally, the anti-Conservative vote has been stronger in Edmonton due to the fact that if you align the provincial vote with the federal one, there are more progressive voters here in the city,” said Dr. Chaldeans Mensah, an associate professor of political science at MacEwan University.

The CityNews-Leger poll shows more than half of Albertans (55 per cent) intend to vote Conservative, while 28 per cent say they will vote Liberal and 13 per cent for the NDP.

Twenty-nine per cent of Albertans polled say they would choose Poilievre — over all other federal candidates — to watch a hockey game with.

After the 2021 federal election, Conservatives held 30 of the 34 seats in Alberta. This election, three more seats will be added in the province because of its booming population.

Nationally, that same poll suggests Carney’s Liberals hold a slight advantage over Poilievre’s Conservatives in voter intention — 40 per cent to 37 per cent — with the Liberals being bolstered by Justin Trudeau stepping down and the nomination of Carney as new party leader.

RELATED: CityNews-Leger poll finds federal election a two-horse race between Liberals and Conservatives

Given the ongoing trade war with the United States is casting a shadow on Canada’s election, which has been called for April 28, poll respondents were asked which party leader is best suited for managing Canada-U.S. relations.

In Calgary, 38 per cent feel Poilievre is the better option in that regard, compared to 27 per cent for Carney. It flips in Edmonton, where 33 per cent believe Carney is the best man for dealing with Donald Trump, compared to 30 per cent for Poilievre.

“Now we have a new Liberal leader and he’s exploiting the Trump issue to his advantage,” Mensah told CityNews. “And I think that essentially this campaign is going to be a campaign where Mr. Carney is going to say, ‘look, I represent change to be able to deal with Trump.’ And Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives are going to argue that they are the true bearers of change based on the Liberal record.

“So interestingly, I think the Trump factor will feature prominently in the campaign going forward.”

When it comes to important issues, nearly a third of Albertans (29 per cent) — higher than any other province polled — say inflation and the cost of living is more important than U.S. relations and the threats from Trump (18 per cent).

The CityNews-Leger poll was conducted prior to Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi announcing his intention to run for a federal seat in Edmonton-Southeast under the Liberal banner, seeing an opportunity to return to federal politics by potentially swaying votes for the Liberal party in the city.

“The mayor is seeing that Liberal fortunes in Alberta have changed since Mr. Carney assumed the position of prime minister,” Mensah explained. “Moreover, we’ve seen that the Trump factor with his anti-Canada rhetoric has really changed the dynamics of the campaign. So there’s an opening for Liberals here in Edmonton, as well as across the country. So I think in that context, Mr. Sohi is putting his name forward to exploit this unforeseen opportunity that has opened up for the Liberals in the city.”

Alberta-U.S. relations, AHS allegations

Just over a third of Albertans (36 per cent) believe Premier Danielle Smith is doing enough or more than enough when managing relations with the U.S., while 44 per cent think she is not doing enough.

That support is stronger in Calgary, where 42 per cent feel she is doing enough or more than enough. It drops to 27 per cent in Edmonton. In both cities, men are more likely to view Smith favourably in her response to the U.S.

In terms of the allegations of political interference with Alberta Health Services (AHS), respondents were asked about Smith’s handling of the situation. More Albertans oppose her handling of it (45 per cent) than support it (35 per cent).

–With files from Bianca Millions in Edmonton

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The poll was conducted between March 10-13, among 1,504 respondents as part of an online survey — including 151 from Calgary and 150 from Edmonton. The results were weighted according to age, gender, region and education to ensure a representative sample of the Canadian population. A probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.49 per cent.