Calgary’s economy expected to grow in 2026, but unemployment remains a concern
Posted Nov 19, 2025 5:52 pm.
Last Updated Nov 19, 2025 7:27 pm.
Calgary’s economy is projected to expand in 2026, though unemployment is not expected to fall significantly as uncertainty continues to weigh on businesses.
According to Calgary Economic Development’s annual outlook, the city’s economy is forecast to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2026. While that figure is lower than the growth projected for 2025, Calgary is still expected to outpace the national average.
Local entrepreneur Dan Faassen, owner of Kricket’s gift shop in Marda Loop, says he’s cautiously optimistic heading into the new year after grappling with tariff challenges.
“I think we are optimistic… This year, I’d say it’s been a bit challenging with all the extra stuff—the tariffs and things like that. I find that shipping prices have gone up, so that leads to our prices having to go up,” Faassen explained.
Brad Parry, President and CEO of Calgary Economic Development, acknowledged the challenges businesses face amid trade and policy uncertainty.
“When you see trade uncertainty, you see policy uncertainty; it’s the challenge for businesses to make plans and grow, but I think we can’t let that stop us. We have to keep moving forward,” he said.
Despite the growth forecast, Calgary’s unemployment rate—currently at 7.9 per cent—is expected to hover around 7 per cent next year.
Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial, noted that while such levels are typically associated with recessionary conditions, Alberta’s situation is different.
“Eight per cent unemployment would be typically associated with a recession. Alberta is not in a recession. This is simply a matter of keeping up with the population,” Parsons explained.
Mayor Jeromy Farkas pointed to Calgary’s rapid growth as both a challenge and an opportunity.
“As we move towards becoming a city of 2 million people, there are some challenges associated with that, but it’s only upside, in terms of increased quality of life, in terms of services, infrastructure, so long as we have a plan,” he said.
The economic update comes as Canada prepares for a 2026 review of its free trade agreement with the United States and Mexico. While hopes remain that tariff disputes with the U.S. will be resolved, Calgary is also working to diversify its trade relationships.
Parry highlighted recent progress, noting that Calgary Economic Development signed three deals in Japan to help local companies enter that market.
For Faassen, who has operated Kricket’s for over 20 years, the city’s resilience and community support remain a source of confidence.
“I feel like Calgary has always been supportive of local, and we have some really loyal customers,” he said.
