Alberta sees record housing starts in 2025; slowdown expected for 2026

The Alberta government is highlighting a record number of housing starts the province had in 2025, numbers that experts say are not in the forecast for 2026.

Minister of Assisted Living and Social Services Jason Nixon held a press conference revealing the “housing construction record” of over 53,000 home starts in 2025, which is 14 per cent higher than 2024.

The last quarter, particularly, saw over 17,000 housing starts, also a record. The province says Alberta led the country in housing starts per capita in 2025.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its housing data on Jan. 16, showing the country had nearly 260,000 housing starts in 2025, an increase of 5.6 per cent. Alberta made up around a quarter of all starts.

The report credited Calgary and Edmonton for the country-wide increase after having record annual starts in 2025, along with Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau.

Calgary had over 27,000 housing starts, while Edmonton had over 21,000. In other cities in Alberta, Lethbridge had around 620 starts, a 13 per cent decrease from 2024, while Red Deer jumped by 14 per cent to 405 starts.

While more housing starts — especially higher-density homes — were on the docket for 2025, fewer people moving to Alberta is expected to continue leading to price declines for row- and apartment-style homes in 2026, while semi- and detached homes are expected to see small price increases, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board.

Its forecast report shows that the market transition will move from one that favoured the seller to one with “more balanced” conditions.

Scott Fash, CEO of BILD Alberta, is happy with the record number of housing starts, but he admits the hot trend will slow down in Alberta for various reasons.

“I think we expect this to be a bit of a transition year, in terms of starts,” he said.

“Not expecting a record-breaking year, definitely some moderation. A lot of unknowns, whether that be tariffs, whether that be population growth, we know that’s going to dampen slightly.”

He says the federal GST rebate for first-time home buyers, which was introduced in June and yet to come into play, is being monitored because he says potential buyers are waiting for it.

The rebate would eliminate the GST for home sales up to $1 million, which works out to roughly $50,000 off the cost of a new build or a substantially renovated unit.

“Our expectation is that there’s quite a few people who’ve been sitting on the sideline waiting for that 5 per cent rebate,” Fash said.

“If I was looking to buy a house for the first time, I’d be waiting for it too.”

Fash says it’ll probably go back to the 10-year average numbers, but still a healthy market for 2026, just not as high.

With files from Tim Schutz