Most Albertans would vote to stay in Canada, 1-in-10 would leave: poll

Over half of Albertans would “definitely” vote to keep the province in Canada if a referendum on separation were held, according to a new poll from the Angus Reid Institute.

The poll released Monday says only one-in-10 Albertans — eight per cent — would “definitely” vote to leave Canada, while another 21 per cent would lean toward leaving.

Fifty-seven per cent would “definitely” stay in Alberta, while eight per cent would lean toward staying. Another five per cent are unsure.

The poll is the first of a three-part series examining separation issues across the province, which have grown since Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party won the federal election.

The findings from the randomized sample of Canadians in Alberta show the convincing arguments for definitive stay voters are noting their own Canadian identity, Alberta’s fundamental place in the country, and the notion of the province finding resources due to being landlocked, at 92, 90, and 93 per cent, respectively.

The leaning stay voters also agree with those arguments, but not at the same rates, at 61, 55, and 64 per cent, respectively.

“The appeal to those who would vote to stay is built largely on patriotism and practicality. Indeed, the top arguments that Albertans find ‘convincing’ are that [they’re] Canadians, and they don’t want that to change, and that Alberta would be landlocked without coastal access as an independent nation,” the poll reads.

On the other side, the consensus on the reasons for leaving ranges from 78 up to 100 per cent, including the province freeing itself from “harmful federal policies” (98 per cent), an independent Alberta valuing personal freedom more than Canada (100 per cent), and forging its own “independent path” (98 per cent).

When it comes to how the two groups gather information about the current petition referendum, 71 per cent of stay voters rely on mainstream news sources, while half of leave voters rely on “alternative media sources.”

Additionally, 45 per cent of leave voters receive their information from friends and family, and 23 per cent rely on the petition events around the province. Fifty-six per cent of all voters choose mainstream media sources, and 43 per cent prefer social media.

Sixteen per cent of United Conservative Party members would definitely vote to leave, while the lean vote is at 41 per cent. Twenty-six per cent would definitely vote to stay, while 12 per cent are leaning in that direction. Most NDP voters would “definitely” stay.

The survey also includes questions about how leaders and other figures are handling the separation issue. Among politicians, Carney is over the hump with a seven-point approval, while Premier Danielle Smith has the highest disapproval with -17. Her approval is higher with her own supporters at 67 per cent, while 89 per cent of NDP voters disapprove.

Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer representing petition initiator Mitch Selvestre of the Alberta Prosperity Project, had the most disapproval of all, noted at -25 per cent, while the latter has -21 per cent.

He has said members from the group have met with the U.S. administration and that UCP MLAs have signed the petition.

If the province were to separate, 74 per cent of those who would vote to stay would move from Alberta, with three-quarters saying they would move within Canada, while a few would move elsewhere. Only a quarter would stay.

Additionally, most Albertans overwhelmingly believe the United States would pressure the province to join them if it separates, whether through political, economic, or military means.

The petition, first approved in January, started after the province changed the citizen-initiated referendum. It decreased the number of needed votes by over 100,000 while increasing the petition collection time frame.

Another amendment made in late 2025 removed the original requirement that proposals not be similar or the same as others within the past five years.

A similar petition calling to stay in Canada by former Progressive Conservative MLA Thomas Lukasuk collected over 400,000 signatures under the old rules. It has yet to be discussed in the legislature.