Alberta’s timing targets for West Coast pipeline ‘best-case scenario’: CIBC analysts
Posted May 19, 2026 10:20 am.
Last Updated May 19, 2026 10:21 am.
Analysts at CIBC World Markets say the timeline the Alberta government set out for construction to begin on a potential new West Coast oil pipeline reflects a best-case scenario.
The province aims to submit a proposal to the federal major projects office by July 1, have it designated a project of national interest by Oct. 1 and have shovels in the ground as early as Sept. 1, 2027.
The Alberta government laid out those targets after it and Ottawa finalized one of the last outstanding elements of their energy accord signed late last year — an agreement on how the market price on carbon is to gradually increase to $130 a tonne by 2040.
The last remaining side-agreement to sew up is between the province, federal government and the oilsands industry on funding the multibillion-dollar Pathways carbon capture project, a precondition for the pipeline and vice versa.
The CIBC analysts say in a research note that they’re encouraged by the continued sense of urgency on moving the pipeline forward, but the timelines are optimistic and key elements remain up in the air.
In addition to the Pathways question still dangling, also outstanding are negotiations with British Columbia, consultations with Indigenous peoples and clarity around the ban on oil tanker loading on the northern B.C. coast.
