Simmering trade tensions threaten U.S. travel rebound
Posted Aug 26, 2026 12:15 pm.
Some parts of the United States are finally seeing more Canadian visitors after a sharp downturn last year — but the latest tariff fight between Ottawa and Washington is putting that fragile recovery at risk.
Kalispell, Montana, is one of the communities trying to rebuild its Canadian tourism base. The city saw an estimated 38 per cent drop in Canadian visitors in 2025. This July, however, traffic was up 16.1 per cent year‑over‑year, a shift local tourism officials had been hoping for.
Lorraine Clarno, President and CEO of Discover Kalispell, says the rebound has been encouraging.
“It was really, really exciting to see that things are improving,” she says. “We did see a significant decline in 2025, but over 2026 sentiment has been changing a bit, and we have been expecting an increase back in Canadian visitors, which we are thrilled about.”
But with Canada imposing retaliatory tariffs and both countries’ officials trading sharp words, Clarno worries the progress could stall.
“It does concern us,” she says. “When our Canadian friends are not here, we do feel it economically; there’s no if, and/or but, not just from hotels but from every aspect of hospitality and recreation.”
Statistics Canada data suggests the concern is warranted. Numbers released Tuesday show a 10.6 per cent year‑over‑year decline in outbound trips to the U.S. by Canadians in the first quarter of 2026.
Some travellers say they’re still staying away.
When asked why she’s avoiding the U.S., Canadian traveller Nicole Eisner replied: “Because of the one president.”
Eisner says she’s disappointed by the tension but optimistic about Canada’s economic outlook.
“It makes me sad, but Canada is going to do really well, though,” she says. “Carney is doing his part, and we are going to come out of this really strong.”
For American communities that rely on Canadian tourism, the hope is that the latest tariff dispute doesn’t trigger another steep drop.
Clarno says they’re preparing for any fallout.
“We are very hopeful we don’t see a big dip as we did in 2025, but we’re going to watch for it and do whatever we can to overcome some of those things.”
