Calgary drivers catch break at pumps, but experts warn it won’t last

This May long weekend, Calgary drivers are seeing gas prices lower than in 2024, but experts warn this relief might not last long.

As of Friday in Calgary, gas prices sat at 137.9 cents per litre on average, almost 13 cents cheaper than the same time last year, according to Kalibrate Canada consultant Suzanne Gray.

The main reason? No carbon tax. That alone is saving drivers nearly 20 cents per litre compared to 2024, though she says crude oil prices have been increasing.

“Lower gasoline inventories combined with rising demand as the busy summer driving season kicks into gear have led to expanding gasoline refining margins (crack spread) and higher pump prices,” Gray said.

“Crude oil prices were higher last year, while the refining margin for gasoline (crack spread) was narrower. In contrast, this year, crude oil prices are lower (despite rising this past week) while the refining margin has expanded from last year.”

Concordia University economist Moshe Lander also says oil prices are on their way up, though they’re still down from last year.

“Of the six factors, oil and refineries storage taxes, transportation, and demand, right off the top, you’ve got oil prices and taxes are lower than they were, that’s going to add up to a big saving at the pump,” he said.

However, both Lander and Gray warn the savings at the pump won’t stick around. Kalibrate Canada’s data shows a recent rise in crude oil prices, which Gray links to positive trade news between the U.S. and China.

Combine that with shrinking gasoline supply in the U.S. Midwest and rising summer demand, and Gray says prices are likely to climb again.

Still, Calgary drivers are paying less than most–11.4 cents per litre below the national average as of Friday, according to Kalibrate.

So, the bottom line, it’s a good time to fill up if you’re hitting the road for May long, as prices are better than last year, but they may not stay that way for long.