‘Dark Horse’ candidate could emerge in Alberta UCP leadership contest

A heated debate on Wednesday and the way the balloting system works shows the United Conservative Party (UCP) leadership may still be anybody’s game to win.

The UCP utilizes a preferential ballot system, meaning people rank each leadership candidate in terms of who they’d prefer to lead. If nobody receives a majority of the votes — 50 per cent plus one — then the person who received the least number of votes gets eliminated, and the second and third choices on the ballot cards get distributed to the pool.

This is repeated until someone eventually gets a majority.

Many have praised this system as it ensures no vote is a ‘wasted’ one.

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However, MacEwan University political scientist Chaldeans Mensah says it opens the door for a potential “dark horse” candidate.

“The front-runner is not guaranteed anything in a preferential ballot system, somebody can come from behind with the redistribution of votes take this thing and surprise everyone,” he explained.

“People have to be paying close attention to the candidates that are not in the headlines right now, [because] their supporters could actually determine who may become the new leader of Alberta.”

He says he would divide the seven contestants into two camps: Rajan Sawhney, Rebecca Schulz, and Leela Aheer in the more moderate group, and Brian Jean, Danielle Smith, and Todd Loewen in the Wildrose and more rural group.

He puts Travis Toews somewhere between the two camps and says Toews is the most likely to get put on the most-ranked ballots as a second or third option which could earn him the premiership.

“They have to be careful how they run this contest, because the preferential ballot will punish antagonistic candidates but benefit candidates that work together, and are from the same camp, to get over the 50-per-cent-plus-one [threshold],” Mensah added.

There was no ranked ballot when Alison Redford and Ed Stelmach won leadership of their parties, but neither won in the first vote. Instead, they had subsequent votes where more memberships could be sold.

So, despite the polls showing clear front-runners in this election, Mensah says it may be their game to lose.

Another UCP leadership debate is set in Edmonton at the end of August.