Alberta could swing to multi‑billion‑dollar surplus amid oil price surge
Posted May 13, 2026 5:00 pm.
A sharp rise in global oil prices is reshaping Alberta’s financial outlook, with new projections suggesting the province may be headed for a dramatic fiscal reversal.
The shift comes after Finance Minister Nate Horner forecast a $9.4‑billion deficit in February, citing rapid population growth and weak energy prices.
But a new analysis from the Business Council of Alberta says the province could instead post a $6‑billion surplus this year if oil prices remain elevated.
The report lands as conflict in the Middle East disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing global crude prices sharply higher.
Mike Holden, the council’s chief economist and vice‑president of policy, says the spike in energy prices is already delivering “a lot of good news” for Alberta’s bottom line.
“Higher energy prices mean that oil companies operating make more money and means that they could potentially hire more people to distribute profits to shareholders, and we see a huge swing in the province’s expected fiscal situation,” Holden said.
Oil is currently trading near $100 per barrel, but Holden notes Alberta would still see a surplus even if prices average in the mid‑$80 range for the rest of the year.
Because Alberta supplies most of Canada’s energy exports, Holden says the province’s economic trajectory is diverging from the rest of the country. The Council now expects Alberta’s economy to grow nearly three per cent this year, while earlier forecasts predicted a two per cent contraction.
Global markets remain volatile as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt oil shipments.
