Poll suggests half of local Calgary businesses would consider leaving if Alberta votes to separate
Posted Jun 24, 2026 10:50 am.
Calgary’s business community is signalling some concern about the prospect of Alberta separating from Canada.
A poll commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce and conducted by Probe Research shows almost half of surveyed members would consider moving their businesses out of the province if Albertans vote this October to begin a formal separation process.
The online survey of 137 Chamber members, conducted between June 8 and June 22, found nearly two‑thirds of respondents say separation talk is already harming their operations, and 74 per cent see no tangible benefit to leaving Canada.
“Our business community is sending a clear message, separation has moved beyond a theoretical debate to having tangible effects on business confidence and decision-making,” reads a statement from Calgary Chamber President and CEO Deborah Yedlin. “This discussion is not only about the movement of capital to other jurisdictions viewed as more predictable and stable, but also about how the movement of businesses, jobs and labour would permanently damage our economy.”
The results land as Albertans prepare to vote on 10 referendum questions this fall, including whether the province should remain in Canada or pursue a future separation referendum.
Alongside the poll, the Chamber released an economic analysis by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe. His modelling suggests one in three Alberta workers is exposed to trade disruptions with other provinces and international markets.
“The success of Alberta’s economy relies on more than a century of trade ties with other provinces and key trading partners, supported by agreements, infrastructure and regulatory continuity,” says Yedlin.
Using the U.K.’s exit from the European Union as a comparison point, Tombe estimates Alberta could face a six per cent drop in GDP per capita and a loss of 175,000 jobs if separation proceeds.
He also warns that increased trade costs could shrink the economy by $62 billion annually and lead to $10 to $15 billion in lost investment.
