Experts warn of devastating drought in Alberta amid warm, dry winter

The recent months-long stretch of near record-breaking warmth and dryness has experts warning of potentially devastating drought conditions, and governments are being warned to prepare for the worse.

John Pomeroy, Canada Research Chair in Water Resources and Climate Change, says Alberta could be headed towards an agricultural disaster, especially due to repeated loss of glaciers in the Rockies, combined with an El Nino winter, resulting in very low soil moisture levels.

“This has been an ongoing drought for many years in parts of the province and every year, as it gets worse, it depletes more deep soil moisture, or lakes and ponds, wetlands,” he explained. “So, the implications become more and more dire over time.”

He says some difficult decisions may have to be made soon, as Alberta could need more reservoirs to hold water for longer periods of time, and they may also need to consider water diversion efforts, especially on the heels of the province’s warmest December since 1882.

“Unfortunately, we’re looking at a year where temperatures have already started off very,very warm,” Pomeroy said. “The mountain snow packs are well below normal, the snow pillow at Lake Louise is less than two-thirds of where it should be right for snow accumulation, and the prairie snowpack is non-existent in much of the province.”

Local rancher Morrie Goetjen says he has experienced similar droughts before, in the 80s and then again a few years later, but he says it will take a lot to reverse the damage already done.

“We’re in a deficit so it’s going to take an awful lot of moisture and an awful lot of precipitation to get us back up to normal soil moisture conditions,” he explained.

According to Pomeroy, soil moisture levels are 40 per cent lower than normal in areas around Medicine Hat and Lethbridge, while water levels in the Bow and Old Man River are dropping significantly due to earlier-than-normal snowmelt.

“Some conditions are so severe, they’re the sorts you’d see maybe once every 50 years. So, that’s exceptional drought in the area east of Calgary, south of Calgary, and northwest of Calgary, northeast of Calgary as well,” he said. “But it covers the whole province, the whole province is dry to severe drought.”

An immediate forecast isn’t providing the expert with much hope either, noting that the few millimeters of snowfall expected in the coming week would be used by crops in just half a day if they were growing.